The Climate Challenge in Managing Water: Evidence Based on Projections in the Mahanadi River Basin, India

This study analyzes the long-term changes in rainfall and surface hydrology of upper middle sub-basins Mahanadi, an inter-state river basin eastern India that experiences climate-induced hydrological extremes, draws implications for sustainability irrigation drinking water supplies. The likely impacts on flow were also modeled. A Water Evaluation Planning (WEAP) model was set up (beginning June 2009 ending May 2050) to analyze future balance expected socio-economic conditions. run scenarios considered different management interventions, consequences climate variability change. results showed there would be a deficit, about 2,182 million cubic meters (MCM) by 2050 (20% demand) even under business-as-usual scenario. gap is widen 5,005 MCM (25% high growth Further, demand interventions agriculture able reduce overall some extent, while it supplies slightly due reduction return flows occurring as result efficiency improvement. deficit this scenario will 2,773 2050. Under predicted climate, further (will 1,684–2,373 increase owing catchment yields resulting from higher rainfall. While significant amount outflow two all most years (ranging 25,286 28,697 2050), during drought years, areas slightly, but with outflows lower sub-basin 2046–47 11,311 MCM). These indicate need building more storage/diversion infrastructure detain floodwaters wet can provide buffer storage dry years.